Up and down temperatures and off and on rain will define the week as there are a series of weather waves moving over the Commonwealth. Misty and foggy conditions are likely as we move through the night with high pressure getting a weak grip on the area. There is a bit of a drying and cooling period Wednesday but don’t expect that to last long as warmer and rainy weather take over on Thursday. Don’t get too used to that either as cold and windy conditions set in for the weekend.
Here is how the week breaks down. Tonight, there will be a good deal of cloud cover overnight which will keep the temperatures from dropping too much past the low 40s. Wednesday looks to be another cloudy day with rain chances on the way late in the day. There is still enough low-level moisture around to allow for mostly cloudy skies through most of the day. The temperature profile is not going to vary all that much so I expect the highs to be only a few degrees above the lows reaching the middle to upper 40s in the afternoon. Overnight is when I expect to see the best chance for the rain to arrive, so prepare for another round of rain into Thursday.
The line of rain will be robust as it approaches the west face of the Appalachian Range, but dissipate a bit as it hits the hills. Look for the rain to hold together into Thursday and give us a decent shot of showers in the early part of the day. Timing is always an issue when fronts cross the mountains, so I expect the rain to arrive early in the afternoon and exit before sunset. The amount of rain will be enough to allow already swollen rivers to rise again and the creeks and streams to run fast and full. Major flooding is not expected, but we could see minor flooding region-wide. In the mountains there is a possibility for flash flooding, so stay alert for quickly rising water in the mountainous terrain.
Once the rain ends the winds will pick up and the temperatures will drop. Valentines day will be dry but windy and chilly. Highs on Friday will only reach the upper 30s after starting out in the low 30s. Wind Chill Values will be in the 20s most of the day.
Overnight lows Friday into Saturday will be bitter cold, dropping into the teens and 20s. Gradual warming is expected Saturday with highs in the 40s, then a bit more on Sunday with highs in the 50s.
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