Pinpoint Weather: Summer pattern of heat and isolated storms to close out June, July starts out hot.
The month of June is coming to a close and it has been a rather wet month with nearly 8” of rain when we normally get around 4”. There were some hot days and some cooler days, but the overall pattern makes me lean toward warmer and wetter. Full results will be out on Wednesday when we start July. As for the forecast, look for a few afternoon storms to arrive each day, but with varying degrees of coverage and intensity.
Tuesday will be a day with some scattered storms and temps about where we should be for this time of year. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80s east of the Interstate 81 zone and low 80s west of 81. The chance for rain will be much better in the southern NRV with only a few scattered storms in the north. Recent models have been a bit aggressive with the storms in the region, so I am hesitant to get too overwhelmed by some of the forecast models. I do believe there will be storms in the region most of the week, but just not as plentiful as advertised by the models.
Wednesday will be a warm to hot day with the mercury in the thermometer reaching the upper 80s to low 90s east and low 80s west. Storms will be spotty but some models have the region only seeing isolated storms. Again, am leaning toward the less than more forecast.
Thursday looks dry and hot with highs into the 90s east and middle 80s west. Friday will be dry too so prepare for some heat to start the new month.
As we head into the weekend there is a shift in the pattern that may open the door for more widespread rain by Sunday. Again, not all that confident in the models this week, so will hold of on making the heavy rain call. Thinking about an uptick in coverage, but not much. Forecast is under construction, as always, that far out so I will reserve judgement on the specifics. Nothing major is on the horizon so spotty and scattered storm will be a good bet.
Also this is the 8th anniversary of the Derecho that moved through VA starting around 8pm on the 29th.
There was a great deal of heat before the storm moved through and very hot after. Those without power from the storm were impacted for several days.
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