Today is the last full day of summer 2022 and the temps will reflect a warm summer day in the middle to late September. The area of high pressure to our west and south is keeping the region dry and warm. This will linger into early Thursday before a cold front pushes through and changes all that.

The cold front is expected to arrive in the early afternoon of Thursday and be accompanied by some gusty winds and some rain.

The rain is not expected to be very overwhelming, except for the extreme SE corner of the viewing are where the Storm Prediction Center has placed a Marginal Risk tag in that region. Gusty winds may reach severe levels of 57 mph for a brief period during the afternoon. Other than that region the big story is the cool down.

Temperature readings so far this week have been about 10 – 12 degrees above normal, but Friday the high temps will be in the upper 60s in the NRV and Highland and the low 70s everywhere else. Winds will start to relax Friday and we should set up nicely for a quiet Saturday.

Sunday looks to bring back some rain as another front arrives. This rain should be a bit more widespread, and be off and on during the day. Originally thought to arrive late Sunday and linger into Monday, the latest model runs have the rain on Sunday. Since there is a monster hurricane in the western Atlantic this weekend, the timing of the rain may very well change again as the lumbering cyclone called Fiona may slow any eastward movement of our weather patterns.

Here are the latest coordinates for Major Hurricane Fiona, along with the development of two other tropical disturbances.

Gaston is churning up the North Atlantic

A few other waves are continuing to develop, most notably the wave near Venezuela. This feature may become the first tropical cyclone of hurricane status to make landfall in the United States later this month.

I also am starting to look at the Foliage Reports coming out now.

Leaves are changing, not all but some, and we are looking at possibly a vibrant year. We had a relatively warm spring and about average rainfall, and rather consistent rainfall over the summer limiting any drought situations. I will go with a vibrant year the season, and we are due.

The combination of a warm, wet spring, no summer drought and warm, sunny fall days seems to result in the brightest leaf color. Warm, sunny days and cool, crisp nights tend to produce the best reds.

Stay Safe
John Carroll
Chief Meteorologist