A stationary front is draped across the Piedmont and is the focal point for strong storms for the region. Until this front gets nudged along by another feature, like a high-pressure cell, we are stuck in this persistent pattern of strong storms each afternoon and evening. The amount of rain will be significant when the storms arrive and the potential for flooding increasing with each passing day due to the saturation factor of the soil. The storms are robust and dangerous as they have been very electric with a lot of lightning. Today the pattern is about the same as it has been, the storms develop in the NRV in the early afternoon, ride northeast along the front and may or may not become severe. The severe moniker is given when the wind gusts are expected to exceed 58 mph. Although that happens rarely, the winds do get fairly robust. Storm reports come in each day with respect to downed trees and damage so it doesn’t have to be severe to be dangerous. The SPC has placed the area under the Marginal Risk Category for Severe Storms with gusty winds as the main issue.
Friday will be more of the same, this time the storms may be more pronounced in our northern counties. The rain and wind in the region with a good deal of rugged terrain is more than likely going to lead to some flash flooding in some areas. The potential for dangerous weather again throughout the region is present, but the more likely location will be north of 64.
Saturday the high-pressure cell I mentioned above will finally arrive from the north and push the stationary front along the coast. This will allow us the region to settle down a bit and dry out. The temperatures look to rise on Saturday near 90 as the sun will do a good job baking the earth. Sunday will see more of the same as the high sets up camp. Monday will keep this pattern going as well. Each afternoon there is still a chance for an isolated storm to pop up in the heat of the day, but overall, the widespread nature of the storms like we have been experiencing should be diminished.
On another note, NOAA has issued their mid-season update on the hurricane potential for the Atlantic Basin. To no one’s surprise they have placed this season in the “Extremely Active” category with 19 – 25 named storms, 7 – 11 of them hurricanes and 3 – 6 of the hurricanes may become major hurricanes. Old numbers 13-19 named, 6 – 10 hurricanes, 3-6 major.
Stay safe and healthy