Never really any let up in the stormy pattern over the Commonwealth in the summer as no sooner do we start taking a breath from the impacts of Isaias we now turn our attention to the storms of today and tomorrow. Isaias was a very impactful storm with respect to the inland damage caused by outer band tornadoes that developed. Our viewing area received only a glancing blow at best from the fast moving but damaging cyclone. The potential for our nasty weather for the next few days will migrate around a stationary front that will drape itself over the Piedmont. This will be the trigger for several rounds of strong storms on Thursday and again to a lesser degree on Friday.
The storms have been targeted by the Storm Prediction Center to be of Marginal Risk with gusty winds being the main severe ingredient. FYI. to be an official severe storm there needs to be 1” hail, a tornado or wind gusts 58 mph or more. Any one of these will get the title of severe thunderstorm. Although heavy rain and lightning are dangerous, they are not included in the severe definition.
As for the forecast, storms continue to move north from the Carolina’s into the overnight hours. Some of the storms are producing gusty winds and a lot of rain and lightning. Expect the areas that get storms to see some pockets of fog overnight.
Thursday will see a good deal of widespread storms in the afternoon as the combination of migrating moisture, the stationary front as well as heating of the day will generate the storms. The high temperature for the day will be around the middle 80s most areas east of the Foothills and the low 80s west. The storms will more than likely be powerful and generate a good deal of rain in spots so minor flooding is a possibility. Better chance for stronger storms will be east of the Blue Ridge Parkway. The NRV will see a good dose of stormy weather as well.
Friday will see the return of the storms, but just not nearly as widespread. Look for isolated strong to severe storms in the region as a whole. The chance for these storms to reach severe levels will be more likely later in the afternoon once the atmosphere percolates a bit in the heat. Southside looks to be a bit active as well as Central Virginia and the NRV. SPC has our Piedmont in the Marginal Risk Category, but the NRV is also an area of concern for me.
Saturday will be much less active and a bit warmer to hot. Highs will be near 90 and the chance for storms is small, but not zero. Sunday should be a typical summer day with hotter than normal highs in the 90s and isolated storms.
Stay safe and healthy
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