Showers and storms are expected to cross the region tonight and Friday with periods of heavy rain and the potential for minor flooding. An area of low pressure, currently in the middle of the country, will move along the Ohio River and drag a front across the Commonwealth Friday. Strong to severe storms are expected.
Here is how our Baron Model progresses the rainy and stormy weather through the region starting tonight and ending Friday night.
Saturated soils will not be very receptive to the heavy rain so there will be quick run-off allowing creeks and streams to fill quickly. Low lying regions are also expected to be overrun by heavy rain.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the NRV in the Marginal Risk Category today for severe storms with the main threat being gusty winds. There is mention of an isolated tornado as well, so we need to be weather aware as the night moves along.
The stronger storms are expected to develop Friday and come across in waves. In other words, periods of rain will be likely Friday with the strongest storms in the afternoon. The location of the more robust storms should be east of Highway 29 and gusty winds and hail are the main concern. There is still a chance for some storms to spin up an isolated tornado, so the risk has been increased to 5% east of Highway 29. May not sound like much, but it is an increase from earlier forecasts, we need to be alert in the late morning to early afternoon time frame. The SPC has us in the Marginal and Slight Risk Categories Friday.
Once the storms clear the eastern counties there will be spotty showers through the night into Saturday morning before tapering off by around noon.
The rest of the holiday weekend will be dry and hot. The warming pattern will start on Saturday as temps reach the low 80s then be followed by middle 80s on Sunday and temps are expected to be close to 90 on Memorial Day.
If you do have plans outside this Memorial Day, be sure to bring plenty of water and wear a large brimmed hat to keep you slightly cooler.