Strong storms have pushed into the area out ahead of what is currently Hurricane Isaias. The bands have strong storms embedded in the line and are also able to generate small spin up tornadoes. The storms into the night will be producing gusty winds and very heavy rain. The rain is going to be on top of the significant amount of rain we received over the weekend in a number of locations, so Flash Flooding is a possibility. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for most of the region.
As for the second aspect to this event, the stationary front that is draped over the Appalachians. This will be a concern as the wind and rain rotating around the Tropical Cyclone will run up against the front. The front will help squeeze out a good deal of rain along the foothills, and the mountains themselves help to squeeze this out too. In other words, there will be a good deal of rain in a few spots, the Piedmont and the Foothills. Flash flooding is very dangerous, water rises quickly in the rugged terrain so make sure to keep an eye on rising waters in your area.
The timing of Isaias will be for the center of the cyclone to be just west of Williamsburg or just SE of Richmond by the middle of the morning. We are going to see the rain pile up in our eastern counties as he moves past to our east.
Rainfall amounts will be in the 1 – 3” range, but hire in the 3 – 5” range if the path shifts west a bit.
Good news is that the event should be over by the afternoon for our viewing area, and if the forecast is on point from the NHC, we will get a glancing blow vs a direct hit. Areas to the east of and along 95 will get the lions share of the storm’s fury. Winds for us will be most intense near the storms early Tuesday morning.
Scattered showers on Wednesday along with temps in the 80s with more rain slated for Thursday. Typical summer pattern expected into the weekend with highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s with isolated storms each day.
John Carroll
Chief Meteorologist
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