Pinpoint Weather: Rain showers off and on today, spotty storms possible late

Weather Blog

A mixture of clouds and sunshine defined the day as the region prepares for a wet and aggressive weather pattern slated for Tuesday. A cold front will move in from the west and ahead of the front will be a good deal of rain.

This computer run as around one to two inches of rain from the Mountain Empire to the Alleghany Highlands. Other models expect to see the rain more robust east of the Parkway. Bottom line, we will be getting rain Tuesday and flooding may occur in some spots. Timing is always an issue as well.

The rain will also cool the region ahead of the front. Look for highs to only be in the 50s & 60s over the mountains, and in the 70s and 80s in the Piedmont. The warmer temps will also contribute to the possibility of a few thunderstorms. East of the region there may be stronger to severe storms.

The rain is expected to be the most robust in the middle to late afternoon Tuesday with flooding of low lying regions and urban areas east of the Parkway likely. The line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will be slow to migrate across the Commonwealth so the chance for flooding rains is increased.  Keep an eye on rising waters in your area Tuesday as this will be an aggressive fall system.

The Storm Prediction Center has the southeastern corner of Virginia (including Virginia Beach) in the Marginal Risk category for severe storms late in the day.  This is not the case for western Virginia at the moment, but the timing of the front will determine the extent and intensity of the storms, so we need to be on guard.

There will be heavy rain at times on Tuesday in our region, but the threat of severe weather is east, but flooding is a concern here.

Once the storms clear the region on Tuesday night along with a few showers and fog lingering Wednesday morning, the region should be set for some cool fall air for a while.  High pressure will arrive and drift slowly overhead through the end of the week and into the weekend. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler by the end of the work week, topping out only in the low to middle 60s.  It looks like the quiet pattern may stick around into the beginning of next week too.

As for the fall foliage, here is the climatological peak times for the region.  Already starting to see some changing leaves in the higher elevations, not much, but a little.

Stay safe and healthy

John Carroll
Chief Meteorologist

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