A very active weather pattern to the west of the region today will have a hard time translating to the eastern portion of the country. The Storm Prediction Center has significant storms forecast today on west of the Appalachian Range but as the line of storms migrates east, they look to dissipate.
The forecast for the region is much less intense as the radar would indicate as we look at the line of storms in the early morning to the west followed by the amount of stormy weather indicated by our Baron Model Thursday afternoon.
The front will stall out over the Piedmont Thursday afternoon, and that may allow the atmosphere to percolate, leading to the development of a few robust storms. Again, the storms expected on Thursday in our region will pale in comparison to the events taking place today out to our west. Still, there is lightning and wind forecast for Thursday, which is still dangerous, so we need to be weather aware. The rain is not going to fall everywhere, and only about a quarter inch is expected.
Overnight Thursday into Friday the temperatures will really take a dive, bottoming out in the 30s in the mountains and NRV, and the 40s east of the Foothills. The cool snap will be short lived as we warm up again quickly Friday
Friday will be the start of a drying pattern as the temps will reach the 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Saturday will be partly to mostly cloudy and a passing shower is not out of the forecast. Not all will get the brief shower, so the day should be fairly pleasant with highs in the 70s.
The rain chances are expected Saturday due to a weak cold front that will cross the Commonwealth. There is not much water to work with as mentioned but we should be much cooler on Easter Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the middle 60s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Not anywhere close to a washout for any outdoor activities, so the Easter Egg Hunts will be fine.
Rain may arrive in the NRV before sunset Sunday then overtake the area overnight into Monday. Rain will fall for the Monday morning commute, then taper off. Highs Monday may only make it to the upper 50s.