Pinpoint Weather: Quiet and warmer pattern in Virginia to start the week

Weather Blog

The region looks to maintain a dry and mild pattern throughout the work week with little in the way of cloud cover.  The only forecast challenge will be to determine what the highs and lows will be each day.  There will be an area of low pressure over western Virginia that will keep us relatively cloud free all week. The other aspect to the high will be the ability to keep the remnants from what once was Delta (our 25th named storm of the Atlantic season) away until next weekend.

So, the bottom line is the position of the low will be the determining factor for the temperatures.  Tuesday the high is expected to be almost directly over the Piedmont. This will keep whole of Virginia dry and a bit milder than normal for this time of year. Normal falls under the “low 70s” category for most of the region east of the Foothills and “upper 60s” in the Highlands and NRV.  So, expect to see sunny and near normal conditions on Tuesday.

Wednesday sees the high shifting a bit to the east and south which opens the door for a bit more of a westerly flow to the air and taps into the warmer conditions to our south and west. Highs on Wednesday will be significantly warmer than usual by around 10°.  The westerly flow of air into the Roanoke Valley also has an added heating element. The air flows over the Alleghany Mountains and then compresses as it flows off the hills. This compressing of the air molecules mashes them closer together and generates a bit of friction. This friction generates a bit of heat and the region warms a bit more than areas that are not in line with the westerly flow off the mountains.  That is why I went a bit warmer than most on Wednesday.   Might be a bit aggressive, but I do feel Roanoke and other locations will be in the 80s.

A dry cold front moves through on Thursday and gets us back to near normal then high pressure from the north sets in and we cool down even more on Friday.

Saturday is when most models are going with the remnants of Delta moving through Virginia.  We should see the rain Saturday and Sunday before it exits off the east.  This is really far out in our forecast range, so this will all be changing. Right now, going with Saturday for the rain, but will reserve the right to change that up. 

Speaking of the Tropics:

Gamma is going to be meandering around in the Bay of Campeche for the next few days.

Delta is expected to become a hurricane this week and move from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico.   Delta may become a cat two before making landfall somewhere in the central Gulf Coast region late this week.   

Be sure to check out “Tracking the Tropics” Tuesday night at 8pm and Wednesday afternoon at 2 pm right here on WFXRtv.com

Stay safe and healthy

John Carroll
Chief Meteorologist

Check out my Digital Original story on the way weather impacts the fall foliage 

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