Pinpoint Weather: More storms expected today, Isaias will impact Virginia early next week

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Pinpoint Weather: More storms are expected today, Isaias will impact Virginia early next week

July is over but it was historic. The string of 90s was impressive as we measured 29 days in a row at 90 degrees or more. Another record that fell was the overall temperature average for the month will go down in the books as the “Warmest July ever” and the second warmest month of all time.  This was a warm month to say the least.  Now we are putting July 2020 behind us as well as in the record books and now we turn our attention to August.

Today scattered storms are more than likely expected to develop in the afternoon. Some of the storms are expected to become strong or even severe later today with gusts near 58 mph and there is the whispers of some storms developing some rotating characteristics.  The threat of a tornado is expected to be north of the region, but some of our northern counties are in the 2% chance for a tornado… it is very slight… but it is not zero.  Keep an eye to the sky. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s east of the Foothills, and in the middle 80s in the mountains. A stationary front will continue to serpentine across the Commonwealth into Saturday night before shifting north as a warm front. This movement or lack of movement will allow storms to ignite along the front and give us more showers and storms. 

Sunday will be the warmer day, but not by much, as the stationary front migrates toward the north as a warm front. As the name suggests the warmer pattern will be present, but the impact will be the same. I still expect to see the storms pop up in the heat of the day so we still need to be mindful of the skies as some of the storms may generate some gusty winds, heavy rain that could lead to flooding and dangerous lightning.  Some models are suggesting a line of strong storms along the Parkway late in the afternoon, so that may be a feature to watch for.

As for the elephant in the room…Isaias is expected to travel up the eastern seaboard and provide many problems for the folks along the coast. The NHC has him as a Cat one all the way from Miami to Savannah GA but may be a bit stronger if he drifts a bit more into the Gulf Stream waters in the Western Atlantic. The thought now is that he will make landfall near Myrtle Beach and hug the coast until exiting into the Chesapeake Bay by late Tuesday.

The impact for us will be rainy and windy conditions.  The overall focus of the rain will be over the Coastal Plain but the winds and rain will kick west into the Piedmont and there may be some flooding from the Blue Ridge escarpment to the sea. A cold front is expected to push over the mountains Monday and help to lift out some rain as well, so there may even be some impressive rainfall totals along the spine of the Appalachians on Tuesday as well. Timing is always an issue with these big lumbering cyclones, but Tuesday looks to be the day Isaias will push north to the Delmarva Peninsula.  Monday night into Tuesday afternoon may be the best time to get the greatest impact from the ninth named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season.  And the tenth named storm just developed off the coast of Africa.

John Carroll                                                      
Chief Meteorologist

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