The mild and dry pattern over the past couple of days will continue as we head into the weekend. The sunny and mild conditions are not expected to last long, never really do in February, but are a nice tease for the coming spring weather ahead.
The skies will be mostly clear overnight as the winds become more northwesterly in origin. There will be a marked increase in the cloud cover by late in the day and into the night over our western mountain counties in West Virginia. The air will be dry and that will make it difficult for any moisture migrating into the western slopes from making it to the ground. I do expect a spotty shower or two, but nothing much more than some wet ground.
Normal lows for this time of year are still expected to be near the freezing mark but tonight we will dip down only into the low 40s. The warmth of the afternoon will linger into the evening and contribute to the slow cool down overnight.
Thursday will be another mild day with the temps topping out in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds coming in over the mountains will be noticeable but not overwhelming. The skies will see a mix of clouds and sunshine, but not any rain.
Thursday night will start a transition into a wet regime. The skies will fill with clouds and there will be a noticeable change in the temperature profile. Temps will be in the 30s overnight as cooler air wedges into the region overnight. The presence of the cold wedge for Friday will influence the forecast and the advent of the next round of rain.
Friday will be an interesting forecasting challenge as there will be the cold wedge in place and some moisture feeding in from a fetch of showers moving through the Tennessee River Valley. My thoughts are that the air will not be able to allow much rain to make it to the ground until later in the day and will be in the form of rain. There is the thought that the precipitation may start out as light snow in the morning and then switch to a cold rain late in the day. Either way, this will be the beginning of a rather lengthy period of wet weather.
Saturday and Sunday will be wet and mild with highs in the middle 50s on Saturday and the low 60s Sunday. The rain will be off and on and likely to continue into the beginning of next week. Soaking and steady will be the best way to define the wet weather this weekend. Minor flooding is possible in some of the favored low areas so keep an eye on area streams and creeks.
Some of the mountains are still snow covered so the rain and mild weather will melt that as well. This may aid in the runoff of the rain and add to some of the minor flooding issues possible over the weekend. The warmth of today and Thursday should initiate some snow melt already so the double dip of rain and snowmelt over the weekend may not be much of a factor.