Pinpoint Weather: Meteorological Summer begins today, strong storms expected Thursday

Weather Blog

(WFXR) — The Meteorological Summer is based on the three warmest months, June, July and August here in the Northern Hemisphere.  The main reason for the variation from the Astronomical Summer is the consistency of the dates and the statistics that go along with the stability of the time frame. The Astronomical Summer is based on the position of the Earth relative to the Sun… solstice and equinox.  These can vary a few days each year, but the Meteorological Summer is always the same number of days and begins and ends exactly the same each year.  As for the forecast, neither have any impact, the skies will do what they will when they want.

The forecast for our week includes a very active day on Thursday as we set things up on Wednesday. The weekend may be a typical summer weekend with temps in the 80s and an isolated storm each afternoon.

Tonight expect to see the skies filling up with clouds as the moisture content of the atmosphere increases.  Little to no rain is forecast but we are starting to set the stage for our main event Thursday. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to low 60s as the clouds keep the warmth from the day in a bit longer.

Typically this time of year an area of high pressure becomes semi-permanent over the western Atlantic near Bermuda an is often a large influence for our weather in Virginia. This time the high will be in just the right spot to allow a moist southwesterly flow of air into our area Wednesday and start to fill the region with clouds. Wednesday will be mostly cloudy by the middle of the day and there may be a chance for some rain over the mountains or even the Piedmont as both heat and topography play a role. But as mentioned above, this is the set up.

Thursday looks to be the stormy day as a trough of low pressure, also pushing in some moisture, will provide ample dynamics to generate some strong storms.  The storms will be arriving/developing in the middle of the afternoon and linger into the night. The issues will be gusty winds, large hail and possibly an isolated tornado. The other issue is the available rainfall. It does look like these storms will be good rain makers and may cause some localized flooding or flash flooding as the night moves on. Please be alert for rising water in the area Thursday afternoon and overnight.

Friday will see some clearing and there is also a chance for some lingering rain in the morning. There will be an isolated chance for some storms Friday afternoon in the heat of the day.

Saturday and Sunday will see clouds billowing in the afternoon and a slight chance each day for an isolated storm.   This is very typical for summer as storms often pop up in the heat of the day.  Mid-80s are the expected high temperatures each afternoon over the weekend.

Watch our special tonight on the 2021 Hurricane Season. It airs at 7pm on WFXR and is filled with a wealth of information that will keep you safe this season. We look back at some of the devastating storms to ever hit Virginia and we look ahead to this season.  Please join us at 7 tonight.

John Carroll
Chief Meteorologist

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