The heat is expected to return to the region Friday as the flow of air shifts from the Northwest to the Southwest. This will bring temperatures above 90 most locations east of the foothills. The Mountains will be warm too with highs in the middle 80s. This is the last week of Spring 2021 as the Summer Solstice is on Sunday at 11:32 pm thus putting an end to the Astronomical Spring and the beginning of the Astronomical Summer. Meteorological Summer is the three hottest months of the year; June, July and August. This weekend will definitely feel like summer. The recent rains have reduced our Moderate Drought footprint a bit but we are still looking at a small pocket of moderate drought over the Piedmont.
Saturday will be a bit of a mix as there is a chance for some clouds to arrive and some showers may fall in the Highlands. That will not stop the mercury in the thermometer from getting to the 90s though. A front will move in from the west and not cross Virginia, but introduce some cloud cover. The flow of air is still expected to be from the southwest, so the warmth is there. Some of the storms may get a bit robust in the heat, but for the most part we should be on the dry side. The Storm Prediction Center has our northern counties under the Marginal Risk for Severe Storms.
Sunday is looking a little wetter with some showers and storms possible to arrive in the heat of the day. The front will be sagging across Pennsylvania and trapping some clouds and rain over the area. There will be enough cloud cover to lower the temps a bit, therefore highs will be in the middle to upper 80s. Still warm, and just about right for this time of year.
Monday may be very wet if the tropical disturbance develops and moves through the lower third of the country. Mainly the track is forecast to be through the Carolinas, but tropical moisture is expected to feed into Virginia Monday or Tuesday providing a good deal of rain to the area.
Tuesday should be the wettest day as the bulk of the tropical moisture will be corralled by a cold front moving in from the northwest. This will enhance the rain so flooding is a concern on Tuesday.
Wednesday will be much drier as the cold front will eventually drift through and the cooler air behind it arrives.
The development of the tropical disturbance will be a major player in the forecast. This will be monitored closely and we will adjust the forecast accordingly.
Happy Father’s Day