The weather patterns are a series of transitions, some from cool to hot, some from hot to cool and many variations on that theme. The usual transition periods include some amount of precipitation and often storms. This transition to cooler air by late in the week will be accompanied by some heavy rain and the chance for some isolated storms. A few of the storms may be a bit robust, with winds being the main issue, but the Storm Prediction Center is also a bit concerned about some storms being able to develop rotation as they move near the western edge of the Appalachian Range and drop into Virginia. That will be monitored.
Overall, the main issue will be the potential for flooding as anywhere from 2 – 4” of rain may fall in the viewing area. The best chance for flash flooding rains will be along the spine or peaks of the Blue Ridge Mountains. There is a Flash Flood Watch in place for that area overnight and we should see some issues by sunrise Wednesday. The moisture is tropical in origin and that often translated into very heavy rain. The warmer air in the tropical regions evaporates faster and much more moisture gets into the clouds. Water droplets are much more prevalent in the clouds and heavier rain is more likely with clouds that originate in the tropics.
We have the remnants of Nicolas and a flow of air from the southeast. The SE flow is bringing in moisture from the Atlantic and that is joining forces with the moisture already in place. Look for heavy rain and flooding to begin tonight and last until the morning of Wednesday. The cold front moving in will act as a firing mechanism for the rain as well so I expect to see more rain on Wednesday night when the front arrives.
Prepare for a very active next 36 to 48 hours and keep a watchful eye on rising creeks and streams in your area. The rain today will be serving to soak the soils and the rain tonight will be able to run off quickly leading to localized flooding.
The rain should end on Thursday morning and yield to a much drier and calmer pattern. Temps will be in the 40s and 50s for overnight lows as we close out the week and head into the weekend.
Fall Begins on Wednesday at 3:21 pm, the Autumnal Equinox, as we start the astronomical autumn.
New Freedom Farm Freedom Fest is going into its third and final weekend. The weekend will be the first weekend of fall and it will feel like it with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
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