The tropical pattern has cleared as Fred, or remnants of Fred, are in the NE and the region has been in a bit of a dry pocket since the last line of rain exited the region early Wednesday. There is, however, a batch of rain migrating toward the Commonwealth from the west and may provide some heavy rain over the Alleghany Mountains. The rain will get fairly well squeezed out on the windward side of the hills, but some pockets of rain and heavy rain will make it past the spine and east of the foothills. There is a chance for the rain to lead to localized flooding and flash flooding as the ground is well saturated from recent rain.
The fact that we are in peak foliage and the grasses are thick and the ground is well receptive to the rain, flooding may not be all that overwhelming regionwide, but in pockets it may be very aggressive. With that in mind, it is very important to keep an eye on area creeks and streams as they will run fast and full in the rain, then watch for rising larger rivers as they will get the run-off last.
Friday there will be a continuation of the rain off and on as the day progresses. Then the area becomes a bit stagnant as larger features do battle with one another. There is an upper-level low pressure cell north of the region, a hurricane to the east and we are in just the right spot to be close enough for rain, but not expecting much. The bulk of the heavy rain should get squeezed out over the coastal plain with only scattered showers possible off and on Friday. Rain may be more likely north and over the mountains than in our Piedmont or Foothills locations. Not saying it wont rain, but the better chance for rain is east.
Saturday begins the usual summer pattern with clouds building as the day moves along and the region warms up into the upper 80s to low 90s over the weekend and into next week.
As for the tropics: Grace continues to push through the Yucatan Peninsula while Henri churns in the Atlantic. Not immediate threat to our area by either, but Henri will provide some rough surf and an additional moisture source for the coast over the weekend.