Monday morning’s commute will likely be impacted by the season’s first snow event. While the snow will start off as rain for many, an eventual changeover to all snow before the precipitation exits can be expected.
Because of the recent warm weather, ground temperatures will likely melt the snow on contact at its onset. However, models are projecting a stronger area of low pressure to our south compared to earlier model runs, and this will likely result in the snow falling more heavily which will cool surfaces more quickly.
Winter Storm Warning (areas shaded in pink below) is in effect for much of the region. A Winter Weather Advisory is shown in purple below.
Areas along and west of the Parkway can anticipate as much as 3 to 6″ of snowfall. In the higher elevations, isolated amounts up to 8″ can’t be ruled out. Farther east of the Parkway, anywhere from 2 to 5″ of snowfall with parts of Southside possibly seeing no snow accumulation.
The snow will likely melt at first before accumulating. It will accumulate first on grassy areas and elevated surfaces. West of the Parkway, roads will eventually cool enough to allow for slush and some icy spots to develop before daybreak, especially in the higher elevations. East of the Parkway, the changeover to snow will occur later. With this in mind, roads will likely be wet for the early commute as the snow melts on contact when it first begins. However, snow may occur heavily enough to rapidly cool surfaces allowing for slushy roads and some slick spots to develop during the morning commute in some areas. Be especially careful on bridges and overpasses as these are likely the driving surfaces that will see slick spots develop first.
The precipitation will end as snow and make its way out most, if not all, of the region by around noon.
It will be windy and much colder Monday with highs in the 30s and 40s. Most areas will be above freezing during the afternoon, melting any snow accumulated on surfaces. However, higher elevations above 3500 feet may not warm to above freezing.
Temperatures drop to well-below freezing Monday night. This along with near calm winds could lead to refreezing of any lingering moisture, resulting in black ice in time for the Tuesday morning commute.