High pressure will park over the Great Lakes and New England over the next few days allowing for a weak wedge of cool air to set up over the Commonwealth. This will take a bit of time to develop, but for the most part the area is looking quiet and sunny.

Winds will be noticeable tomorrow before the wedge digs in, and will arrive from the WNW, allowing for some weak leaves to break free and start to populate your lawn.  Not many as the peak leaf drop is a couple weeks away for most of us, but our Highland counties will see a bit more color this week. Winds Tuesday will be in the 10mph range but see gusts near 15 – 25mph.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler as the high will also import the cool air, as mentioned above. This will be the norm for the week as highs will struggle to get into the upper 60s regionwide.

No rain is expected until the weekend, but there will be a noticeable uptick in the cloud cover Thursday and Friday ahead of the remnants of Ian.

The data is still being collected for the path of Ian, even as he lumbers through the Caribbean, so we must continue to adjust our forecast for the weekend. Currently, the common thread is that clouds will build up Thursday and Friday then rain is slated for the weekend. The amount of rain is not yet determined but it would be wise to prepare for at least 2 – 4” of rain this weekend, which is on the high-end side at the moment. The wedge will be a player in the advancement of the remnant low, the cooler air will impact the severity of the possible thunderstorms, and the low itself will be powerful and maintain a great deal of energy and water to be released.

Bottom line is that we need to prepare for some very heavy rain, in the event that Ian powers through the wedge. The storm is obviously tropical in nature and therefore can hold a great deal of water for a good deal of time. We just need to be ready this weekend for the heavy rain and hope for just a couple of inches.

Leaves are changing, not all but some, and we are looking at possibly a vibrant year. We had a relatively warm spring and about average rainfall and rather consistent rainfall over the summer limiting any drought situations. I will go with a vibrant year the season, and we are due.

The combination of a warm, wet spring, no summer drought, and warm, sunny fall days seem to result in the brightest leaf color. Warm, sunny days and cool, crisp nights tend to produce the best reds.

Stay Safe
John Carroll
Chief Meteorologist