The mild pattern will continue through the weekend as the temps stay above normal. Major changes on the way Monday with widespread rain, maybe some thunder and windy conditions. A switch to more of a wintry pattern on Tuesday with mountain snow and colder temperatures.
Saturday will be a pleasant and dry day with the mercury in the thermometer topping out in the 50s most locations as a few 60s east of the Parkway. Look for the skies to be mostly sunny. Saturday will be a lovely day to take a walk or a hike in the region. The meteorological winter is just a few days away and I am looking at a major shift in the weather pattern as early as Monday.
Sunday may be the last mild day for a while as an area of low pressure will intensify in the SE United States then migrate into the Commonwealth on Monday. Sunday will be the day of transition as clouds will become more prevalent and the region will see a chance for some rain to arrive in our Southside counties just a bit after sunset Sunday.
Monday will be rainy and windy. The feature will be a deep area of low pressure that has all the earmarks of gusty winds and heavy rain. The origin of the low is from the south so the air will be mild. That is significant as the precipitation will be in liquid form (rain) and not frozen (snow). Then the low moves north and retrogrades a bit through the Eastern Great Lakes of Erie and Ontario. This movement west and north will allow this feature to grab some colder air from Canada and sweep it into the Commonwealth. The result will be heavy snow in West Virginia late Monday and will continue until late Tuesday. The snow is not expected to get past the spine of the Appalachians but there may be some snow bursts make it to interstate 81. All the while we should be dealing with windy conditions.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be much cooler with highs only reaching the upper 30s to low 40s. Mountain snow should continue Tuesday and the winds will not relax until Wednesday. The computer models have been keeping the region in a rainy pattern with snow confined to the mountains starting Tuesday. Overall, the accumulations will be low since the ground is still warm. For the region to get any significant measurable snow this early in the season, it would have to be more of a clipper that originates in a cold zone vs. a storm the arrives from the south. The simple reasoning being the southern storms bring in much milder air than the clippers from Canada.
Saturday will be our best day of the four day weekend. Enjoy the mild air, the meteorological winter starts Tuesday and highs on Tuesday are expected to be in the low 40s.
Stay safe and healthy
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