Moving into the new work week the mild conditions will linger but rain is advancing into the area from the south. The current conveyer belt of rain is maintaining a more southerly track and I expect that to continue into the night. As the night moves along and we near dawn, look for the rain line to migrate north. Patchy fog is expected to arrive overnight and yield to the rain early Tuesday. The rain will be more showery in nature, but persistent. Some areas that did see a good deal of rain Saturday night may easily see some minor flooding of low-lying regions. Temperature forecasts from the guidance models is all over the place varying from the mid 60s to the low 50s for the same locations. So, I am taking a more persistence look at the temps and factoring in the rain and clouds and came up with my numbers which is a bit of a blend.
Wednesday looks to be a day of lingering showers. Nothing that will overtake the region, but enough to make sure you keep the umbrella handy. The temperature forecasts are not giving me a lot of confidence, but I can say that we will remain above normal for the next few days.
Thursday may be the dry day, as the skies clear and we dip a few degrees in temperature. Winds will be noticeable as well. Highs should be a bit cooler as we start to establish a wedge of chilly air.
Friday that chilly air will be in place and should establish a formidable wedge to deal with the incoming precipitation. The cool air may allow the precipitation to arrive before sunrise Saturday as snow, then shift to some sleet, then freezing rain then all rain. In other words, a wintry mix early then rain. Usually a decent amount of fog will develop in the area as the cool air and warm air collide. Currently, it looks to be more seasonable on Sunday and Monday with highs in the 30s and 40s.
The NWS did send a survey team to the Chilhowie area to determine the weather phenomenon that generated all the damage in the region Saturday night. It was concluded that Straight Line winds near 75 – 80 mph were the force that caused the damage, not a tornado.
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