Not much warmer as we move into the first full week of November.
So far this month, and I am aware of the small sample size, November has started off on the cold side. The overnight lows have been in the 20s and low 30s while the highs have been in the 50s. Our normal levels for this time of year are 40s for lows and 60s for highs, so needless to say we have been on the crisp side. Looking forward we do not have much of a warm up in our future. In fact, late in the week the region may experience a dusting of snow. The timing of the precipitation is jumping back and forth with each model run but for now I am going with overnight Friday into Saturday.
Here are a few locations with some chilly temperature readings:
Lewisburg 23
Wytheville 24
Covington 24
Blacksburg 25
Floyd 25
Salem 26
Martinsville 28
Roanoke 30
Lynchburg 32
Burkes Garden, with an elevation over 3000 ft. reported a low of 16 early on Saturday.
As we start the first full week of November the region will be looking at a good deal of sunshine. The temperatures are expected to stay below normal all week with the warmest (or mildest day) being Tuesday and Thursday reaching highs near 60. No precipitation is on the docket until the end of the week. Timing of the rain is a bit tricky as the models have yet to come together on that but it does seem now that late Thursday night into Friday will be our next wet scenario. May be earlier, but not later, but current thinking is Friday.
The interesting aspect to this precipitation event will be the advent of our first snow. We may see a bit of a dusting most locations on Saturday morning. Nothing more than a noticeable coating, but roads will be slick and tough to navigate. The ground is not frozen so the first few hours of the snow shower event the snow will melt on contact. If this does come to pass the grassy areas and elevated locations could see a flake or two pile up to be noticeable, but not much more.
After that we dry out and stay cold into the weekend.
The snow part of the forecast is still in the early stages of our prognostication, so it will more than likely change a lot over the next few days. Just wanted to get it out there for you all.
By the way,
the earliest snow in Roanoke (greater than 0.10”) happened on October 10th
1979. One year we didn’t get any snow until March 9th, that year was
1976. The average first snow in the Roanoke
area is December 13th.
Stay Safe.
John Carroll
Chief Meteorologist
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