Strong storms expected through the evening, Barry forms in the Gulf
The issue today is the potential for strong to severe storms to move through the region ahead of a cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the viewing area under a Marginal Risk for severe storms with some of our communities north of 64 in the Slight Risk category. Hot and humid air will cultivate the potential for severe storms from this afternoon into the evening. The main threat will be gusty winds, but the potential for heavy rain is also likely, therefore localized flooding is a possibility. This activity will be generated ahead of a cold front that will drop across the region then stall over NC for a little while impacting the chance for storms in Southside Friday from time to time during the afternoon.
Heading into the weekend we will be on the hot side with temps topping out near 90 east of the Blue Ridge, middle 80s west of the Parkway. The elephant in the room is what should become Barry by the end of the week.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 is now Barry. Here is the information to date… getting better organized today and is expected to move into a more favorable environment for tropical development. Warm water, lifting or unstable air, very little vertical shear and a bit of a lid over top… meaning we should see Barry become stronger and possibly develop into our first Atlantic hurricane of the season.
There is the chance for this feature to move up the Mississippi River and throw some remnant moisture our way by the end of the weekend or early next week. This will give us a good deal of rain but some models have the feature just flat out dissipating over Arkansas or Missouri next week. But I don’t think it will rain itself out completely, so that moisture has to go somewhere and it may trickle into the Cumberland Plateau early next week and the Commonwealth shortly afterwards. Nothing close to being etched in stone.
Until then, keep an eye to the sky Thursday and on rising waters in the area.
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