Storms likely Thursday, tropics get interesting


Strong storms expected Thursday; Gulf of Mexico gets interesting

Scattered showers have been speckling the region on Wednesday, mainly influenced by heating of the day as well as the terrain.  Not much organization is anticipated and most of the storms should linger into the evening and taper off after midnight.  The larger issue is the potential for strong to severe storms to move through on Thursday.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the viewing area under a Marginal Risk for severe storms.  The main threat will be gusty winds, but the potential for heavy rain is also likely, therefore localized flooding is a possibility.  This activity will be generated ahead of a cold front that will drop across the region then stall over NC for a little while impacting the chance for storms in Southside Friday from time to time.

Heading into the weekend we will be on the hot side with temps topping out near 90 east of the Blue Ridge, middle 80s west of the Parkway.  The elephant in the room is what should become Barry by the end of the week.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 is what the moniker is at the moment, but as it develops into a Tropical Depression then to a Tropical Storm, it will be called Barry.  Here is the information to date… Rather disorganized early on Wednesday but is expected to move into a more favorable environment for tropical development.  Warm water, lifting or unstable air, very little vertical shear and a bit of a lid over top… meaning we should see Barry become realized by Friday at the latest, maybe as early as Thursday.

There is the chance for this feature to move up the Mississippi River and throw some remnant moisture our way by the end of the weekend or early next week.  This will give us a good deal of rain.  Some models have the feature just flat out dissipating over Arkansas or Missouri next week.  But I don’t think it will rain itself out completely, so that moisture has to go somewhere and it may trickle into the Cumberland Plateau next week and the Commonwealth by mid to late week.  Nothing close to being etched in stone… technically it hasn’t formed yet.

Keep an eye to the sky Thursday and on rising waters in the area.

John Carroll
Chief Meteorologist

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