(WFXR) — In late May, the meteorological community anticipates the release of the seasonal hurricane outlook ahead of the tropical season.
However, there are many key elements that help the Climate Prediction Center and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) determine the outlook for the season. They will look at meteorological, climatological, and environmental features to produce the most accurate and informative long-range outlook possible.
The hurricane season which begins on June 1 through Nov. 30 has an average of 14 named storms. Seven of those storms become hurricanes with three of them being classified as major hurricanes — which is Category 3 or higher.
This year the season is expected to be above normal, with as many as 21 named storms of varying intensities.
The first outlook for the season is a rather broad brush view of the climatological and environmental possibilities. As the season progresses toward the peak of the season, the outlook becomes clearer. The NHC and Climate Prediction Center will release an updated second outlook in September.
Before the second update is issued, meteorologists look at many factors to help them narrow down the outlook. They factor in trends, sea surface temperatures, and winds out of Africa. From there a much more accurate expectation of the rest of the season is obtained once the season has begun.
However, the update — above all else — is a reminder that you need to be prepared and ready for the active part of the year.
When these outlooks are distributed, it is time to prepare your home and family, with a plan that everyone can practice.