A number of variables go into the forecast for hurricane season. Most of the prognosticators have the 2021 season being above normal. The belief is the warm water cycle of the Atlantic along with other climatological features continue to push the envelope when it comes to an active season.
Here are the names of the storms for the 2021 season.
Ana has already been crossed off the list as she developed as a sub-tropical storm in the central Atlantic in mid-May – even before the official start of the hurricane season.
Before we look at the forecasts, there is a major change to note this year. This season there is a new average. Each decade the averages are re-calculated based on the past 30 years. The new average increased our numbers for both named storms and hurricanes.
Here are the numbers from the National Hurricane Center, which predicts an above average season:
Meanwhile, here is the forecast from the WFXR Pinpoint Weather Team for this season:
Our team took a look at the past season and decided that there is a chance for us to go through all 21 assigned names once again.
Also of note, if the season goes past the 21 names assigned, there will be a supplemental list of storm names that start once again with the letter A. There will be no more Greek names to tap into for several reasons, one of which is that there were a couple of retired Greek letters due to the intensity of those storms last year. Eta and Iota were retired by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). To avoid confusion in the future the WMO will introduce a supplemental list each year. Below are the supplemental names:
These forecasts will be updated in August as the season is well into the heat of the summer. Oftentimes, these updates are done to re-introduce awareness of the hurricane season, remind all of us to keep our plans in place and to stay alert throughout the season. September is usually the height of hurricane season, so a quick update/reminder is a good idea.