Rain may be heavy at times today, flooding is a concern
The storms that arrive will be accompanied by gusty winds and the threat of hail. There will also be a good deal of rain in a short period of time so minor flooding is expected. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us on notice with most of the region be in the Marginal Risk Category for severe storms and some eastern counties in the Slight Risk. This is updated frequently so as the day moves along, we may see the Slight Risk Category expanded and I will update us when that occurs, if at all.
Friday will be what I call the heat busting day as a cold front will be drifting south through the region. The front will be the focal point of the storms but there will be considerable activity prior to the actual crossing. Winds with a good deal of moisture will arrive from the southwest ahead of the front, storms will be firing up as they converge with the cooler air on the way. Although the main threat will be gusty wind, hail and flooding, lightning is always dangerous and the probability that a few cells may begin to rotate, not necessarily generate a tornado, but rotate in a broad sense, is possible. Tornadoes are not expected today, but the threat is not zero… we will be on the look out for them. The region will still be moist from all the humidity this week so expect a fairly widespread rainy and stormy day Friday into Friday night. I believe the border between Virginia and North Carolina may see the most intense storm coverage as the front times out with the warmer air in that region Friday afternoon.
Storms linger into Saturday morning but should end before sunrise. There will be a noticeable cool down Saturday as temps will top out in the 70s for afternoon highs. We may see a mix of clouds and sunshine most of the day, but little in the way of rain chances. Sunday may be a bit cloudier as the clearing and cooling high will be positioned over New England. This will bring a northeast to east flow of wind into the area. The cooler air combined with some marine components (moisture) will hitchhike along to provide some decent cloud cover. Temps still in the 70s for highs.
Gradual warming trend initiates on Monday and the next chance for rain doesn’t arrive until at least Wednesday or possibly not until Thursday.
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