Day three of significant flooding: this is still a very dangerous day as the ground is weak and landslides and fast-moving creeks and streams still pose a risk to life and property. Most rivers and creeks are receding but the Dan River is still rising and will stay above flood stage over the weekend.
Also there will be a chance for us to see the potential for some isolated strong storms before the sun sets so we need to keep an eye on the building cumulus clouds in the distance. Any rain that falls may be heavy rain and that could lead to localized flooding.
Flooding will continue even after the rain ended, but levels are lowering
-Some roads and low-lying areas remain flooded
-many roads closed
Larger rivers are going to stay above flood stage this weekend but most are receding
Most river waters will be dangerously swift for recreational activities
Localized power outages will be possible as winds pick up to 15-25 mph gusts
Landslides remain a threat today and this evening
Isolated storms may be strong to severe Friday afternoon
-gusty winds the main threat, possibly some hail
-heavy rain with the storms may lead to flash flooding
Friday: We deal with the lag time flooding. The rain should be ending but this where we find the most issues with the Dan, New, James, Roanoke/Staunton Rivers. As mentioned above there will also be a threat of severe or strong storms along the VA/NC border this afternoon with the potential for gusty winds and hail may reach the severe limits of near 60 mph gusts and 1” hail. Near the storms there may be rounds of brief heavy rain and that could lead to flash flooding. The other big issue is that there will be a good chance for us to see trees pushed over and power outages may be more likely on Friday even as the rain tapers off. Some storms may pop up over the mountains so we need to be alert if we are camping this weekend.
Saturday will see some spotty rain and an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon, but the the larger issue will still be the big rivers as they are not expected to crest until this weekend. As for the smaller rivers, if you are out and about over the weekend, be aware that the waterways in the region are running dangerously fast. May be wise to avoid swift moving bodies of water.
The Dan River at South Boston is not expected to Crest until late Saturday and that stage is over 30 feet.
Memorial Day will be a rather nice day as the temps will be in the 70s and low 80s with only a small threat of some isolated storms. There will be a cold front moving in from the northeast that should set up our “wedge” pattern, in other words cooler air migrates in from the north and locks in against the Blue Ridge. Monday will be warm most spots except the Central Virginia counties of Amherst, Bedford, Appomattox and Campbell including Lynchburg. A decent amount of cloud cover usually accompanies the wedge, so there may be more clouds than sun on Monday.
In Conclusion: All in all, the rain event this past week has playing out as expected and the potential for dangerous widespread flooding is running its course. Many roads will still be closed due to high water and the area until late Friday. The concern for the weekend will be the larger rivers that are now receiving all the runoff from the smaller tributaries in their basins. Please be careful if you are near any waterways.