Roanoke College Poll shows Biden maintaining lead over Trump in Virginia; Warner leading Gade in Senate race

Your Local Election HQ

SALEM, Va. (WFXR) — A new poll conducted by Reconnect Research and Roanoke College finds former Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. Sen. Mark Warner leading against their Republican opponents — President Donald Trump and Daniel Gade — in Virginia ahead of the November election.

This data in this poll was collected between Sept. 30 and Oct. 12 from 602 likely Virginia voters via telephone, officials say.

According to Roanoke College, the poll shows Biden leading President Donald Trump by 15 percentage points — 53% versus 38% — in Virginia, with only 5% of interviewees undecided and 4% saying they they will vote for Libertarian candidate, Jo Jorgensen.

This new poll — which was released on Thursday, Oct. 15 — shows Biden’s lead increasing in Virginia compared to the 12 point lead he had in the May Roanoke College Poll and the 14 point lead in August.

“Trump’s favorable/unfavorable rating is 41%/56% while Biden is at 52%/44%. Trump’s numbers are slightly improved from August, while Biden’s are marginally worse,” Roanoke College said. “One-third of likely voters think that the candidates represent their issues and policy preferences very well or somewhat well (32% for Trump and 33% for Biden), but almost half (48%) say Trump does not represent their interests very well or not at all, while 34% say that about Biden.”

Meanwhile, the poll says Democratic incumbent Warner has a 17 percentage point lead — 55% to 38% — over his Republican opponent, Gade, in the race for the U.S. Senate.

“Biden maintains his lead over Trump in a race that has been extremely eventful but appears to be impervious to events,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, director of the Roanoke College Poll. “The overall numbers have changed very little over the course of many months, and time is quickly running out for the Trump campaign. It is not a surprise that the underfunded Daniel Gade trails the well-known incumbent Mark Warner.”

Typical of many elections, a plurality of the likely voters (23%) primarily focused on the economy, Roanoke College says.

However, significant percentages of likely voters consider the coronavirus pandemic (17%), race relations (14%), Supreme Court appointments (12%), and civil unrest (10%) as the top issue, according to the poll.

With regard to the Supreme Court appointment, 56% of respondents reportedly believe the winner of the presidential election should make the appointment, but 41% think that decision should be made by the end of 2020.

Meanwhile, the poll indicates voters are split almost down the middle on whether or not they have faith in 2020’s election being a fair one.

According to the poll, only 51% of likely voters are either very or somewhat confident that votes will be accurately counted across the country, but 46% are not very confident or not confident at all about the accuracy of the tally.

In addition, 49% of respondents reportedly say they have little to no confidence Americans will accept the election’s official outcome, which almost as many likely voters — approximately 47% — say they have some to full confidence the winners of the election will be accepted.

To read the full results and methodology behind the Reconnect Research/Roanoke College Poll, follow this link.

Latest Stories

Get breaking news, weather, and sports delivered to your smartphone with the WFXR News app available on Apple and Android.

Copyright 2020 Nexstar Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

News tips

Do you have a news tip or breaking news to share with WFXR?  Submit your tip here.

Latest News

More News

News Tip Form

Restaurant Service Guide