After a relatively quiet season with just three named storms before this weekend, currently we have two storms to discuss in the Atlantic Basin.
The first is what is now a Tropical Storm, Dorian, moving to the northwest a a nice clip (around 15 mph). Winds are in the high end of the tropical storm spectrum at 50 mph and gusts near 65 (tropical storm parameters are 39 – 73 mph). Dorian is expected to become a Category One Hurricane near Puerto Rico sometime on Wednesday afternoon. Nowhere near as devastating as Maria in September of 2017 as she slammed into the island as a Cat 5.
The track brings Dorian over the Dominican Republic Thursday, then continues to move NW into the Bahamas. Gradually increasing in strength (according to this run) he will be watched closely as he approaches the east coast of Florida.
The other storm of concern is what will soon be Erin. This cyclone is still in the Tropical Depression phase with winds sustained near 35 mph. Once the wind speed increases to 39 mph, she will become a Tropical Storm and the name of Erin will be attached.
Although not expected to make landfall, this storm will churn up the waters off the coast fairly well. Rough surf and rip currents can be expected along the Carolina coasts, Virginia Beach and the Delmarva Peninsula.
If you are heading to the beach this week before the long holiday weekend, stay alert for rough surf.