Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday


Heating up once again, strong to severe storms possible Tuesday

Summer heat will be with us over the next couple of days and be accompanied by a chance for strong to severe storms on Tuesday afternoon and evening.  There will be a cold front moving south through the mid-Atlantic states that will be the focal point for strong storms.  This will coincide with peak heating on Tuesday so the potential for severe storms will be present.  The main threat with these storms at the moment will be gusty winds and large hail.  The potential for a few of the supercells that develop to generate a tornado is also possible.  The chance for a tornado is low, but it is not zero, so we need to be aware of this potential threat.  The timing of the storms looks to be off and on through the day, but the stronger storms will be in the late afternoon and early evening.  Flooding is also a concern as some of the storms will bring brief bouts of heavy rain.

As of noon Monday, the Storm Prediction Center has the region north of 64 in the enhanced risk for severe storms for Tuesday afternoon.  This is a very fluid forecast as some of the models are not in compliance with the strong storms.  I am taking the path that leads me to conclude that there may be severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening until proven otherwise.  Please be weather aware on Tuesday since this summer has been a very active and aggressive one with respect to severe storms. 

There is the potential for strong storms to develop once again on Wednesday as the front will have a tough time leaving the region.  Look for more rain and storms in our southern tier counties Wednesday. 

Thursday will still be on the rainy to stormy side as a coastal storm rides up the eastern seaboard.  Not much widespread coverage of storms, but the potential is there for some heavy rain and localized flooding in our region, mainly east and south.

Friday looks to be the beginning of the dry period, still a few storms in the afternoon, but more the typical summer pop ups.  The weekend at this juncture looks quiet.  Time will tell if and when we adjust the forecast. We have a lot on our plate before the weekend arrives.

Stay safe.

John Carroll
Chief Meteorologist

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